Judged by newspaper circulation only, the paper recycling industry might seem like a diminishing sector. In a presentation at the Paper Spotlight session of the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI) 2015 Convention & Exposition, held in April in Vancouver, British Columbia, consultant Bill Moore portrayed a bigger picture comprised of several paper grades.

Moore of Atlanta-based Moore & Associates described a history of paper recycling that has long included the recovery of old corrugated containers (OCC) and then ramped up considerably with the advent of municipal recycling programs in the 1980s and 1990s.

Those programs, he noted, focused heavily on the collection of old newspapers (ONP), a commodity that helped fill the curbside bins of these programs until that grade started dropping off dramatically in 2008.

Single-stream recycling programs have subsequently started including many varieties of paper and packaging, keeping tonnage stable. Regarding digging deeper for material while trying to retain quality, however, Moore said, “Every next ton you collect is going to be more contaminated than the one before.”

The proliferation of municipal programs and the material recovery facilities (MRFs) that serve them also has resulted in market distortions for recovered fiber, Moore said. As the United States has grown from having 40 MRFs in 1991 to more than 620 in 2014, the ONP and mixed paper collected and processed by these plants does not diminish in response to lower pricing.

An oversupply in poor markets results, he said, because the material is coming from “a homeowner who doesn’t care about the price for ONP or mixed paper.” In turn, he commented, this can keep prices lower for a sustained period of time.

Despite the drop in newspaper, book and office paper end uses, the overall global paper and board market is expected to continue to grow from 2013 to 2023. According to figures Moore presented, global demand will grow from 410 million metric tons in 2013 to 480 million metric tons in 2013. While newsprint demand will fall by 1.9 percent, demand for containerboard will rise by 3.3 percent and for tissue products by 3.7 percent.

For recyclers in North America, however, the growth of these two grades may not be able to offset the drop in ink-on-paper applications when it comes to increasing their future tonnage. “OCC recovery in developed regions of the world is very high—really at the maximum level in many parts of Europe and heading that way in the U.S.,” Moore said.

Tissue, as the other major growth sector, possibly represents even less of a collection opportunity, as most used tissue products are considered unrecoverable via conventional recycling methods.

The better news, Moore said, is that paper and board packaging remains a preferred option for many industrial, agricultural and consumer products makers. “OCC is expected to be the strongest market going forward, even if it currently is at a weak point in its price cycle,” he commented.

The ISRI 2015 Convention & Exposition was at the Vancouver Convention Centre April 21-25.